The article does not really address much. You need to look at the long term
not short term because these are not normal times. There is much flux in
computing because of the failure of netbooks and rise of tablets and devices
and in Linux in particular because of two new desktop environments in GNOME
3 and Unity. Many people are concerned. Even without Unity many Ubuntu users
would be spooked because GNOME 3 is just a scary for most users because it
as not only a big change, but a move to a new metaphor. Having Unity thrown
into the mix and having Mint stick with tried and true GNOME 2.x which is on
its last legs, but at least familiar only adds confusion.

KDE went through this when it moved to KDE 4 and things are stable now, but
it was a rocky start. People do not like being thrown curves so it is not
surprising that many people are waiting this one out. That means that many
are not upgrading which is going to lower the Distrowatch page rankings.
People go there either to find ISOs or to read about changes. If people have
made up their minds then they would not go there and Ubuntu is going to dip.
Shuttleworth has said that he expects some people to move to other distros
in the short term. What Unity brings to the table for Ubuntu is control.
They can determine the direction and they could not with GNOME. Canonical is
setting the bar high. Shuttleworth wants 200 million users within 4 years.
That is ambitious, but doable only if you have vision and control. They have
both.

www.techdrivein.com/.../...-ubuntu-users-in-4.html

I am a Kubuntu user. These changes do not affect me. I have used both GNOME
3 and Unity and prefer to stick with KDE. However, I am open to change and
look forward to Unity's maturation and development. It is exciting and new.
I love that Canonical has vision and is challenging itself and the status
quo. I think that people need to stick with what works for them now and give
Canonical some room. If you jump ship now and choose something regressive
like Mint then you miss out on the excitement. The best that you will have
in four years is what you have now and GNOME 2.x is already ten years old.
With Canonical you are going to get something that is going to be cutting
edge. I used KDE 3 and switched early to KDE 4 and do not regret it. It was
a bit rocky, but I have seen growth that others sitting on the sidelines
missed out on. I feel part of that growth because I submitted bug reports
and helped new users. People who use Unity now may feel limited, but their
expertise will grow faster than a late adopter. My experience is that after
you make the adjustment you get not only how it works, but why they did it
this way. Unity has tons of keyboard shortcuts that power users like and
newbies who have smartphones and netbooks seem to catch on quickly. It is
dinosaurs like me stuck in the desktop computer metaphor that are struggling
with it.

Don't be discouraged by the spin. Ubuntu has long had many critics and the
move to Unity and next year Wayland is going to give them something to focus
on. My bet is that other distros will follow in their footsteps which puts
Canonical in a leadership position. People like to take shots at the leader
behind their back. It has been going on a long time with Ubuntu. That
usually means that you are successful when others are jealous.